We have repeatedly asked Penn State to provide Covid data modeling and other forms of scientific evidence to justify its testing policies. Such evidence has not been forthcoming. As a result, CJU faculty is now showing that we have science on our side.
Our CJU team has created projections for Penn State's University Park campus that show estimates of the number of student deaths, asymptomatic infections, and necessary quarantine space based on Penn State's current testing plans. They also show projections of what would happen if Penn State a) tested 100% of students prior to/on arrival and b) increased its daily surveillance testing from 1% to 10% so that it is more in line with the testing program at the University of Illinois.
Please keep in mind that these projections are for University Park only and therefore do not represent the entire magnitude of effects on the Penn State student body. Also, due to concerns about possible retaliation from the university, our team has chosen to remain anonymous. However, their methods and model are all laid out transparently in the technical report and are open to public scrutiny. They welcome feedback and comments and will update the documents frequently as they receive new information and suggestions, and as they continue their own research.
The team can be reached at: firstname.lastname@example.org
A note about our modeling data and projections: CJU faculty in the College of Engineering and the Eberly College of Science spent early August studying Covid testing plans and data modeling conducted at other universities. These epidemiological models include work done at Yale, Harvard, Cornell, University of Illinois, and other institutions, made available by the authors and discussed and debated both within their local university communities and in the Epidemiology literature. Some of these models were used by universities in the Boston area to design their testing strategies.
The CJU technical report explains their Covid model and the simulations, along with some tentative projections of the effects on non-students (faculty, staff, non-student residents of State College). Updated Aug 25, 2020.
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